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20k users to start (based on current [PROJECT] data), growing at a decaying MoM rate, starts at 50% and decays by 27% each month, thus reaching 70k monthly users quickly within the first year, and slowly reaching a plateau of around 120k users over the next 3 years.
Note: this is inputted into the model in the form of buy pressure, not user quantity - in other words, we take 20k multiplied by $250 to get the “MAUs”, but as far as the model is concerned, the output is simply the $ value used to purchase tokens. This is an important distinction as you’ll come to see an inherent unalignment of it in the MAU Stakers section in the Results section below.
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Average spend $250 per user on a Gaussian distribution from $200 to $300.
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Stakers will sell 5% of tokens every month.
- Constant inflow of 3.5k users per month spending $250 each on average. This is 5% of 70k, which is where the above number plateaus. In the model, buy pressure from MAU Users comes from any new users, so since the total number plateaus, it means there will be no new users after a few months. Hence, I created this tranche is to simulate more users coming in, whilst on the other end stakers are unstaking at a similar rate.
- 5,000 and increases by 1% every month (this equals around 60k token holders after 1 year, which is reasonable to assume given AAVE had 19k holders Dec 2020 after launch and 100k Dec 2021 - so 60k is a reasonable in-between).
- Average spend $100 per user (based on some research from a few months ago (can’t recall what client it was for so can’t find it) + generally a reasonable assumption from what we hear from our marketing partners).
- 60% of the Speculators will sell 5% of their tokens at a 0.5x, 2x, 5x, and 10x, (15% of people at each given multiple) as soon as the token hits that price point. 40% will never sell (reasonable assumption based on psychological levels retail traders talk about).
- Total revenue starts at $385,662 and grows by 9.95% per month (based on financials data).
- If we match this $386k to 17k current users (as per [PROJECT]), that is about $22.69 per user per month.
- Since users plateau at 70k, we will take revenue per month as also plateauing at $1.59M per month.
- 50% goes towards treasury, 50% towards buying back the tokens (hence, buybacks plateau at just under $800k).
- Bought back tokens go directly to the Staking Tiers as rewards, and any difference between the quantity of bought back tokens and the quantity of tokens owed to facilitate the 5% APY will be pulled from the Staking Reward tranche.